Absolutely, "bias" is clearly a wrong term. Evolution shaped our decision making circuitry to make *repeated* fast life and death decisions in the conditions of uncertainty, rather than one-time slow low-risk optimal decisions with perfect information.
Thank you for an excellent post. Very clear explanation that connects different, well-known perspectives. One question, if I may, concerning footnote 6: I appreciate your distinction between the different perspectives on confirmation bias. I wonder, however, if "discounting of contradictory information" is an implicit feature (or at least risk) if one mainly searches for information that supports one's hypothesis? As I read it, your core definition focuses on the nature of information search (and how this can be optimal), but it is also associated with the risk of not finding out that the hypothesis is wrong - something one might have discovered if one had searched for opposing info. I also wonder if you have listened to Daniel Laken's podcast (episode 3) on confirmation bias, where they discuss Wason's "confirmation bias" card experiment. They acknowledge both perspectives on confirmation bias (at least implicitly) but also highlight that in some situations it might be better to try to "disconfirm" a hypothesis.
Thanks Carsten! I think the two types of confirmation biases can be linked for pretty much the reason you suggest: assessing an hypothesis requires to think about its pro and con. You could think about it as... looking for information internally (using memory, mental simulations). I'll check the podcast.
Absolutely, "bias" is clearly a wrong term. Evolution shaped our decision making circuitry to make *repeated* fast life and death decisions in the conditions of uncertainty, rather than one-time slow low-risk optimal decisions with perfect information.
Thank you for an excellent post. Very clear explanation that connects different, well-known perspectives. One question, if I may, concerning footnote 6: I appreciate your distinction between the different perspectives on confirmation bias. I wonder, however, if "discounting of contradictory information" is an implicit feature (or at least risk) if one mainly searches for information that supports one's hypothesis? As I read it, your core definition focuses on the nature of information search (and how this can be optimal), but it is also associated with the risk of not finding out that the hypothesis is wrong - something one might have discovered if one had searched for opposing info. I also wonder if you have listened to Daniel Laken's podcast (episode 3) on confirmation bias, where they discuss Wason's "confirmation bias" card experiment. They acknowledge both perspectives on confirmation bias (at least implicitly) but also highlight that in some situations it might be better to try to "disconfirm" a hypothesis.
Thanks Carsten! I think the two types of confirmation biases can be linked for pretty much the reason you suggest: assessing an hypothesis requires to think about its pro and con. You could think about it as... looking for information internally (using memory, mental simulations). I'll check the podcast.