I knew it. Admittedly, I always objected on other grounds, namely that basketball shots are not all alike. Sometimes the “hot hand” is just a defensive breakdown leading to wide open threes. Also, it seemed wildly implausible that someone getting fouled hard would have no effect on subsequent free throws, and so on.
Miller and Sanjurjo’s table arriving at 5/12s seems bogus. To quote someone on r/slatestarcodex:
Anyone can easily check there are eight post-heads results available. Four of them are heads, four tails. That's 50%. I think the authors reached 5/12 by averaging the "proportion of Hs on recorded flips" in each scenario, which just seems wrong.
Maybe that commenter is wrong. I'm open to persuasion.
I knew it. Admittedly, I always objected on other grounds, namely that basketball shots are not all alike. Sometimes the “hot hand” is just a defensive breakdown leading to wide open threes. Also, it seemed wildly implausible that someone getting fouled hard would have no effect on subsequent free throws, and so on.
Miller and Sanjurjo’s table arriving at 5/12s seems bogus. To quote someone on r/slatestarcodex:
Anyone can easily check there are eight post-heads results available. Four of them are heads, four tails. That's 50%. I think the authors reached 5/12 by averaging the "proportion of Hs on recorded flips" in each scenario, which just seems wrong.
Maybe that commenter is wrong. I'm open to persuasion.