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Lionel Page's avatar

I was not aware of this video. I watched it following your comment, and it is excellent. It was clear that it was inspired by elements of selectorate theory—the U-shaped curve of stability, with dictatorships and democracies at both ends (around 13'), is a direct prediction of the theory. I then noticed that the video credits Bueno de Mesquita and Smith's book on dictatorship, which makes perfect sense.

Regarding your question, one relevant insight from the coalitional theory of political power for recent elections is that the US Democrats (and other left-wing parties elsewhere) pursued policies that were not supported by the majority of the population (as per opinion polls) but were almost unanimously endorsed by liberal-dominated institutions (media organisations, social media companies, universities). This was an unstable situation. That said, a coalitional perspective also helps explain how internal power dynamics within political parties led to this outcome. As pointed out in CGP Grey’s video, it is not that political leaders are foolish, but rather that they are playing the game of power within their parties. I'll talk about these in future posts.

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