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Paulo Finuras's avatar

Lionel Page’s latest essay, “Does the arc of history bend towards democracy?”, is a brilliant piece of naturalistic political analysis.

He dismantles the teleological myth (inherited from Enlightenment optimism and Fukuyama’s “End of History”) that democracy is the inevitable destiny of human societies. Instead, he shows that democratic institutions emerged not from moral enlightenment but from coalitional dynamics - shifts in bargaining power that urbanization, communication & coordination made possible. As he rightly notes, ideas follow power. His essay resonates deeply with the argument I make in the book Os Demónios da Nossa Natureza: democracy is not our natural political state - it’s an institutional exception built on fragile evolutionary ground.A superb and lucid analysis that deserves wide readership.

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Feral Finster's avatar

Learn well The Iron Law Of Oligarchy. The United States and its vassals and catamites are in no wise "democracies" nor are they "democratic republics".

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Lionel Page's avatar

A problem with such a take is that no country is a democracy. For a non-idealist take that does not negate differences between countries like the USA and China, I highly recommend The Dictator’s Handbook. This excellent YouTube video summarises their thesis: https://youtu.be/rStL7niR7gs?si=ufXE5TBnxtzVI2fc

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Feral Finster's avatar

I used the words "democratic republic" advisedly. The United States is an oligarchy, albeit with some democratic trappings.

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Thom Scott-Phillips's avatar

Hi Lionel!

An important question is, what *is* democracy? The word means power (-cracy) by the people (demos). Using that minimal definition, the form that we've had in the West for ~150 years (roughly: representative democracy) is just that: one particular form.

Are other forms possible? I liked Helene Landemore's book 'Open Democracy'. The vision is utopian but very imaginative with respect to the questions you're grappling with here.

Also possibly relevant, my paper 'Human nature & the open society'. Using naturalism with respect to collective decision making, I argue that we should be using deliberative forms of democracy far more than we currently do.

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Lionel Page's avatar

Hi Thom!

I have not read your text in detail, but I see that it discusses sortition, like Landemore's book. I like the idea of sortition (though the fiasco of the citizens' assembly organised by Macron pointed to issues of incentives, which makes me more sceptical now). I think shaping the argumentative space is also important. Coming from a game-theoretic perspective, I think it is key to shape institutions that “work”, that is, they prevent small-coalition regimes even when everybody tries their best to achieve only their personal goals.

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Joshua Barnett's avatar

God I hope not. Democracy is mob rule.

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Lionel Page's avatar

Dictatorship is also mob rule and you typically are not part of the ruling mob.

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Joshua Barnett's avatar

That's why arms are so important in preserving a liberal society (in the literal translation of the word).

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