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Feb 27Liked by Lionel Page

Perhaps for a different theoretical framework, you could look at dynamic systems theory, guided by Heroclitus’ adage, “No man ever steps into the same river twice…”.

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Re: the Munich Agreement and the "policy of appeasement." Chamberlain had little choice because England had built up its naval and air forces after WW1, but left its army wholly unprepared to assist France in fulfilling its defense pact with Czechoslovakia. Chamberlain remarked to Daladier, the French PM, that Britain "had no army which could march to Czechoslovakia" (ref below). Without Britain's help, France would not go to war against Germany. Hitler's strategy was to announce his plans in advance at Nuremberg and test the reaction. Britain issued no public challenge because it could not have backed up such a challenge. Instead Chamberlain rushed to meet Hitler at Berchtesgaden, signaling to Hitler that Britain would not go to war over Czechoslovakia. Hitler had snuck a peek at Britain's hand and so had the upper hand in negotiations two weeks later at Munich.

Gilbert, M. (1998). A History of the Twentieth Century, Volume Two: 1933-1951, pp. 196-202.

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Thanks for the comment Stephen. I think the hindsight here is that if they had known Hitler's plans, England and France should have stopped Hitler earlier. Each step forward by Hitler made the next one harder to stop. The text by Ellsberg--written only 20 years after the events--is really interesting on that front. It explains how Hitler (according to his own statements) gambled a lot with the remilitarisation of the Rhineland. This move could have been stopped, instead it was not, which substantially improved Germany's strategic position at the start of WW2. For the Sudetenland, the allies also lost the Czechoslovak army and a possible front and the war started the following year.

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